Forecasting without pretending
A cash flow forecast is useful precisely because it is rough. It tells you whether a bad month is coming, not what your balance will be to the penny. Tools that present a projection as a single confident figure encourage exactly the wrong reading.
Karchu keeps the arithmetic visible. A projection is built from the months behind it, the recurring charges it knows about, and nothing else. Where the history is too thin, it says so instead of producing a number that looks authoritative.
What goes into the projection
Income is projected from the pattern of money coming in: how regular it is, how much it varies, and whether it clusters at particular points in the month. Expenses are split into two parts, the variable everyday spend that is projected from an average, and the recurring commitments that are projected on their own schedule.
That split matters. Averaging an annual insurance premium across twelve months hides the month it actually hits. Karchu projects it on its due date, so the ninety day view shows the dip where the dip will be.
Reading the result
Each horizon shows projected money in, projected money out, and the resulting net movement, with the number of months of history the projection rests on. Where a recurring charge is due inside the window it is listed by name, so you can see which commitments drive the shape.
If your statements only cover two months, no forecast is shown. Three months is the minimum for a pattern that is worth projecting, and Karchu prefers an honest gap to a confident fabrication.
This is not financial advice
The forecast is an arithmetic projection of your own past behaviour. It is not advice, it is not a promise, and it should not be the only input into a decision that matters. Use it as an early warning, then check the transactions behind it.
Frequently asked questions
How does Karchu forecast cash flow?
It projects forward from your own history: average income and expenses per period, the recurring charges it has detected, and any known upcoming amounts. There is no market data and no black box model, so you can see which past months a projection is built on.
How far ahead does it forecast?
Thirty, sixty and ninety days. Anything longer would be guesswork given that the only input is your own transaction history.
How much history do I need?
At least three complete months. With less than that the pattern is not stable enough to project from, so Karchu shows what is missing instead of producing a number.
Is the forecast a guarantee?
No. It is an estimate based on past behaviour, and it is labelled as one everywhere it appears. A single unusual month, a lost client or a new contract will move the real figure away from the projection.
Does it include my subscriptions?
Yes. Recurring charges Karchu has detected are projected on their own schedule rather than smoothed into an average, so an annual renewal lands in the month it is actually due.